Crime and migration through history
A Swedish perspective
Social unrest caused by inequality, not immigration
Ever since ancient Greece, a high rate of criminality and social unrest has more to do with inequality and austerity politics than immigration.
Crime was part of the reality of ancient Greece. Theft, fraud and violent crime were common. To combat this, some cities used to ostracize (expel) criminals. The cities expelled those who were disruptive or causing too many problems. Unfortunately, this only meant that the Greek cities just moved those with challenges between each other.
Replacement theory and migration
When the Greeks colonized the Mediterranean, those in power came up with the idea of expelling the poorest people with the most social and criminal problems. Then the Greeks discovered the power of what researchers would call 'replacement theory'. When one group with socio-economic challenges was expelled or emigrated, another vulnerable group often took over the role of the former criminals. Crime does not seem to depend solely on the individual but to be related to societal inequality and the vulnerability of one's group.
"The 'Spirit Level' by Wilkinson and Pickett
Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett's book 'The Spirit Level' highlights how equality affects societies at different levels. Research shows that in more equal societies, all groups function better. Equality does not only reduces crime, but also has a positive impact on health, education and economic stability.
Emigration and immigration part of human history
David Graeber and David Wengrow's world history exposé The Dawn of Everything (2022) with the latest research shows that migration is a fundamental part of human history. Already in the Stone Age, people moved long distances, sometimes across continents, probably to prevent inbreeding.
No original Swede
The idea of an original Swede is wrong. People were living in what was to be Sweden long before the first Swedish state was to be formed in the early Middle Ages.
Immigration to Sweden has often been for economic reasons. The exceptions are the Second World War and from the mid-1980s when people came here mainly to escape war and persecution. But even these refugees are and have been an important resource for the Swedish economy.
Sweden an emigration country in the late 19th century
From 1850 and for a long period, Sweden was an emigration country due to the poverty in Sweden. A couple of decades into the 20th century there was some Nordic, especially Finnish, immigration. There was a historical tradition there. Finland had been part of the Swedish Empire.
After the Second World War, Sweden received refugees on a large scale for the first time. Many came from the Nordic and Baltic countries. At the end of the war, refugees also came from other parts of Europe. Sweden was affected by anti-Semitic, racist and nationalist movements in Europe in the 1930s and 1940s. Openness was probably not so great for refugees from other countries than possibly the Nordic countries.
Towards the end of the war, attitudes towards refugees became more open and welcoming. During World War II, many Finnish war children also came here, many of whom would stay for good.
From 1950-80 massive labor immigration
From the late 1950s and 1960s, massive labor immigration took place. This was something new. The workforce came mainly from Finland, Italy, Greece and the former Yugoslavia, but also from other countries. There was very little tension about the reception of this workforce because there was a huge need for it.
Pizzerias an expression of new multiculturalism
Now broader expressions of new cultures began to appear in Sweden, such as pizzerias and Greek restaurants.
Swedish society is now starting to become multicultural for the first time, as there are now many people in Sweden who are clearly not natives. From the mid-1980s, labor immigration largely dies out and is replaced by refugee immigration. Previously, immigration to Sweden was almost always economically motivated.
Refugee immigration from 1980
Many refugee groups came from remote countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. One large group, the Chileans, had already arrived in the 1970s. The Chileans have certainly left their mark on Swedish society.
From the late 1980s onwards, as Sweden moved towards a prolonged economic crisis, xenophobia became more open and widespread. However, research such as that by economist Sven Grassman shows that the crisis of the 1980s was created. The powers that be, first on the bourgeois side and since 1982 also among the Social Democrats, believed that freer capitalism, greater unemployment as a result of a smaller public sector, reduced government investment, reduced government deficits and more billionaires would get the economy moving again.
Violent 1980s and 1990s
The crisis, whether natural or created, led to xenophobic parties, attacks on refugee centers and the Laserman.
A large proportion of today's annual immigrants are Swedes returning after a few years in the UK or USA, for example.
Many immigrants play an important role in the Swedish economy, often as low-wage workers. But many doctors are immigrants, because for a long time we have trained too few doctors in Sweden. Being Swedish today can mean many different things.
The book 'The Migration Myth' by political scientist and researcher Peo Hansen showed the positive economic impact of more immigrants during the 2015 refugee wave.
Crime often decreases today
In 2022, the number of reported crimes decreased by two percent compared to the previous year. Personal robberies decreased by 11 % in 2022. Fraud through social manipulation increased, mainly targeting the elderly (62 %) ( Source: The preliminary statistics on reported crimes in 2022 from the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brå) ).
In recent years, fatal violence has returned to the levels of the 1990s. Between 2002, there were 98 cases of fatal violence. 2012 was the lowest with 68 cases. The highest was in 2020 with 124. and in 2023 it was 124.
These crime trends come after 50 years of austerity in Sweden.
Workers productive
Workers create things we can use like cars, they stand in grocery stores, they sell pizza, they work in health care, social services and schools. Such practical benefits make the economy grow. Then they use SFI and other public services, which creates jobs. The jobs the immigrants create and their own purchasing power lead to increased consumption, which results in more production.
The centre-right Tidö Agreement won government power in 2022 and began tightening the economy to fight inflation. Tidövalet is also very restrictive on immigration for ideological reasons.
The Swedish economy is now one of the worst performers in Europe
Historically, crime seems to have more to do with inequality and austerity than with migration. Meanwhile, Swedish statistics from Statistics Sweden show that the unemployment rate among people born outside Europe has fallen to historically low levels, almost halving since it peaked during the refugee crisis in 2016. Although more people born outside Europe than in Sweden are still unemployed, the gap is narrowing significantly over time. Every year, more people with a foreign background are gaining employment and opportunities.
A study from Stockholm University shows that children with a foreign background start university studies earlier than their peers with a Swedish background. The researchers followed a group of individuals born in 1996 until their 25th birthday and discovered that as many as 36% of young people with a foreign background start their university studies immediately after high school. Only 18% of young people with a Swedish background did the same.
More people in employment provide more purchasing power, which further strengthen employment. As migration diminishes and austerity politics increase, crime is not less frequent in Sweden and the economy is not going well for society. Inequality still like in ancient Greece seems to be worse for economics and the crime rate than a high level of immigration.
I think most immigrants become either extreme winners, extreme losers/going on benefit or become extreme hard workers. The situation of immigrants leave few medium choices.
It may be true that non-European immigrants do best in higher education, but they also do "best" in crime. I wonder why. Are there two distinct groups going two different roads?
A private theory is that those who come for working do better, and those who flee from violence do worse. Those who come for work take a step to a better life, those who flee from violence may end up in desperation.
I would like the theory to be tested. Or if that has already been done I would like someone coming up with a better theory.